Cohort revenue vs. expenses
Solid: actuals from IRS Form 990[?]. Dashed: COVID-controlled projection median; shaded = 80% CI.
Cohort weighted operating margin
Revenue-weighted. Reference line at 0% (break-even). Grey = COVID years, controlled out.
· SAMHSA treatment-facility census (MH/SUD/OTP + FQHC behavioral). Click a facility for detail.
Methodology & caveats
- What this is
- 16 Chicago nonprofit / CCBHC community behavioral health organizations (mental health + substance use), IRS Form 990 financials run through the same trajectory engine as the hospital and FQHC tools. Facility directory (813 sites) from the SAMHSA treatment-facility census[?].
- Two exposure axes
- Behavioral providers split between grant-cliff exposure (IDHS contracts, SAMHSA block grant — cut these and grant-funded orgs collapse) and Medicaid/program exposure (a Medicaid behavioral rate cut guts the fee-funded ones). Both are measured per-org from the 990, so the sensitivity engine is exposure-weighted on real data.
- Limitations
- 990s are org-level: multiservice agencies (Metropolitan Family, Center on Halsted, Association House) file one return for everything, so behavioral health is a slice — read those margins with care. Trajectory labels default to "stable" because the −25% hospital-insolvency threshold rarely trips for thin-margin nonprofits; the fragility flag (deficit / grant-dependent / Medicaid-exposed) is the signal here.
Policy sensitivity
Each lever hits every org by its own exposure — Medicaid cuts scale by program-revenue share, grant cuts by grant dependence (both measured from the 990, no assumptions). CCBHC certification is the upside lever. Shocks layer on the baseline projection and carry the 80% interval.
Who's hit hardest
Annual revenue/cost impact under the current scenario, by org. Click a header to sort.
| Organization | Grant % | Program % | Baseline margin | Scenario margin | Annual $ impact | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Scenario impact · cohort · 2025–2030
Provider profiles
All 16 organizations. Click a row for its profile; click a header to sort.
| Organization | Latest revenue | Margin | Grant % | Program % | Primary exposure | Status | Sites |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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