The Leading Indicator for the Safety Net
A standing instrument for the finances of safety-net care.
One trajectory engine, run market by market on public filings — IRS Form 990, Medicare cost reports, and the SAMHSA facility census — with confidence intervals and an exposure-weighted policy shock model. Built and maintained by Third Horizon.
Three Markets, One Engine
Choose a cohort
Each market is a cohort run through the same trajectory and policy-shock engine. Chicago is the live deployment — hospitals, FQHCs, and Community Mental Health are all publishing.
Hospitals
24 safety-net acute care hospitals — Medicare cost-report financials (NASHP / HCRIS).
FQHCs
19 Federally Qualified Health Centers — the community front door for care.
Community Mental Health
16 nonprofit / CCBHC behavioral health organizations, split by exposure.
Coverage
Market by market
The engine deploys city by city. Chicago is live; the next wave of metropolitan markets is in preparation.
How Bellwether Works
Data & methods, real-world expertise, and AI
Public financials, one engine
Every cohort runs on the same trajectory model — IRS Form 990 filings, Medicare cost reports, and the SAMHSA treatment-facility census, with COVID years controlled out and an 80% confidence interval on every projection.
Exposure measured, not assumed
Each organization’s grant-cliff and Medicaid/program exposure is measured directly from its filings, so the policy shock engine weights every lever on real data — not a flat assumption.
Ask the data directly
Jane, the platform assistant, answers questions about any cohort or provider in plain language and points back to the underlying filings and methodology.
Methodology & Provenance
The credibility is in showing the work.
Bellwether is a reference instrument, not an advocacy tool. Every figure traces to a public source, every projection carries its interval, and the method is published alongside the result.
Start with a market.
Open a live cohort dashboard, or read how the engine works.